Brown, Rockwell, University of Washington TIE - Roadmap
Here's what we currently intend regarding the Brown, Rockwell, and
University of Washington (BRW) TIE.
First, the proposed extension will provide operators with the ability
to construct more efficient and robust plans based on expected rather
than worst-case outcomes. Second, the extension will provide an
opportunity to add value by automating aspects of model formulation
and source generation. Operators can use these added-value
capabilities as an advanced form of evaluation, adopting suggestions
only if they are confident in the program.
(5-7) currently are not part of the TIE, i.e., we're not willing
to commit to these items at this stage. We are interested in these
additions but there is too much uncertainty in the levels of
cooperation from ACP to make any reasonable predictions at this
- Obtain the CTEMS linear program.
- Obtain and install ACPT from ISX.
- Learn about ACPT. In particular, find out how to extract the
necessary information for quantifying a probabilistic model from the
preliminary assessment phase in ACP.
- Add a window (tool) that takes CTEMS output (a sourcing) and
evaluates it as a plan (degenerate policy) using the probabilisitc model
mentioned in (3).
- Add value to the tool by providing simple sensitivity analysis
(sliders to play with attrition rates and damage assessments).
- Add even more value, ultimately replacing CTEMS, by generating
real policies with conditional sourcing.
- Iterate on the design of 4-6 with feedback from CHECKMATE.
We intend to enter negotiations with the Air Force Checkmate Division
regarding evaluation methods as soon as the relationship with Rome
Labs and the Planning Initiative is formalized.